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  • Feb 4th, 2005
  • Comments Off on US Treasuries unmoved after Fed rate hike
US Treasury debt prices hardly budged on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter-percentage point, as expected, and maintained its commitment to measured monetary tightening. In a statement that was almost identical to the central bank's previous pronouncement, the Fed said inflation and expectations for price growth remained contained, soothing longer-dated maturities.

The lack of change in the Fed's policy proved a comfort to bond bulls, some of whom had feared policy-makers might signal more aggressive interest rate hikes ahead.

"There were no surprises at all, even in the details," said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial. "It's essentially a reprint of the December statement."

The predictability that comes with the Fed's push for transparency also meant the market seemed quite happy to stay just where it was. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down a tiny 1/32 and yielding 4.15 percent.

Short-term interest rate futures trimmed earlier losses after the decision and now predict rate hikes in March and May and a near 55 percent chance of another increase in July.

Pressured by higher official rates, yields on the two-year note spiked to 3.33 percent, their highest since July 2002.

"The use of the word 'measured' comes up again, and 'measured' is Fedspeak for continuing to raise interest rates by 25 basis points," said Ken Mayland, president of Clearview Economics.

But the US central bank also said monetary policy remained "accommodative," suggesting further rate increases are on the way, said analysts. Earlier on Wednesday, Treasuries had softened a bit, partly due to a report from recruiting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas that showed US planned job cuts dropped 15 percent in January.

That raised fears the monthly payrolls report due on Friday might show robust job creation. The jobs data represent the next major hurdle for bond investors and are expected to show that some 190,000 nonfarm jobs were created in January, up from 157,000 in December.

In the week that follows, dealers will have to absorb the Treasury's refunding sale. The Department said it would auction $22 billion in three-year, $15 billion in five-year and $14 billion in 10-year notes. For now, traders appeared more than content to keep flattening the yield curve, a tendency that caused the 30-year bond to climb 8/32 in price for a yield of 4.58 percent.

In contrast, five-year notes were down 3/32 and yielding 3.73 percent, up from 3.71 percent.

Copyright Reuters, 2005


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